Racial Diversity Within a Church Is Associated with Higher Average Attendance Over Time
National study led by Baylor University tracks 20,000 United Methodist churches over a 20-year period
WACO, Texas (March 29, 2021) – United Methodist churches — whether the congregation is white or not — have higher attendance when located within white neighborhoods. But racial diversity within a church is associated with higher average attendance over time, according to a study led by Baylor University.
“This is a startling contrast to previous research that reported multiracial congregations are less stable,” said lead author Kevin D. Dougherty, Ph.D., associate professor of sociology at Baylor University.
The study is published in the journal Social Forces.
Previous research has found that it is difficult for congregations to build and sustain racially diverse memberships, but little research has been done to explore the overlap of racial changes in congregations and neighborhoods over time.
The research also found that white churches in nonwhite neighborhoods fare the worst in attendance.
“Overall, our understanding of racial diversity and congregational participation remains ambiguous,” said co-author Gerardo Martí, Ph.D., L. Richardson King Professor of Sociology at Davidson College. “In this study, we consider: What does the history of demographic change in local churches and their neighborhoods tell us about the potential for congregational survival over time?”
Researchers tracked data from more than 20,000 United Methodist Church (UMC) congregations over a 20-year period — from 1990 to 2010 — and paired that information with census tract data for that time frame to investigate the effect of demographic change on congregations.
Changing Neighborhoods and Church Attendance
The racial composition of the United States is changing, with a majority of the population to be nonwhite by 2035, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections. Congregations in this country are voluntary organizations, and their growing number, along with advances in transportation, gives people more options for where they attend. The growth also increases churches’ competition to attract and keep members, researchers noted.
While neighborhoods generally are becoming more diverse, congregations are not. Only one in four American adults attends a multiracial congregation, defined as one in which no single racial or ethnic group has more than 80 percent representation.
Changing demographic conditions can threaten the survival of congregations. The number of all-white neighborhoods has fallen sharply since 1980; attendance at United Methodist churches also has declined, and Methodist churches with a higher percentage of whites have had increasingly lower average attendance over time.
“As one of the largest religious denominations in the United States, with more than 6 million U.S. members, the United Methodist Church is a wonderful test case to explore how changes in neighborhood demographics impact local congregations,” said third author Todd W. Ferguson, Ph.D, assistant professor of sociology at the University of Mary Hardin-Baylor.
For the study, researchers examined three hypotheses. Here are their hypotheses and findings:
- Racial uniformity inside congregations will be associated with higher attendance. Findings did not support this hypothesis. Instead, Methodist churches with more racial diversity had higher attendance levels.
- Neighborhood racial uniformity will be associated with higher congregational attendance. This hypothesis was supported in the study. Specifically, Methodist churches in neighborhoods where 100 percent of residents were white had more people attending worship services than Methodist churches in racially mixed or predominantly non-white neighborhoods.
- When the racial makeup of a congregation matches that of a neighborhood, this will correspond with higher church attendance. Contradicting the hypothesis, attendance levels were highest for nonwhite Methodist churches in 100 percent white neighborhoods as well as racially diverse Methodist churches in neighborhoods with racial uniformity. The authors speculate that nonwhite or racially diverse Methodist churches may attract more participants because they offer an attractive alternative to typical white Methodist churches found in white neighborhoods.
“Our findings challenge the popular assumption of the Church Growth Movement that churches grow by focusing on a single racial or ethnic group,” Marti said. “For Methodist churches, reaching across racial lines proves a better strategy for growth.”
Other influences on church attendance were region of the country and population size. The study found that Methodist churches in the Midwest and West had higher attendance as did Methodist churches in more populated neighborhoods.
“More research is needed on race and attendance over time in other denominations,” Dougherty said. “Neither congregations nor neighborhoods stay the same indefinitely. Understanding how change in one impacts change in the other is a crucial task for researchers and religious leaders.”
*Co-authors are Gerardo Martí, Ph.D., professor of sociology at Davidson College in Davidson, North Carolina, and Todd W. Ferguson, PhD., assistant professor of sociology at the University of Mary Hardin-Baylor in Belton, Texas.
ABOUT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY
Baylor University is a private Christian University and a nationally ranked research institution. The University provides a vibrant campus community for more than 19,000 students by blending interdisciplinary research with an international reputation for educational excellence and a faculty commitment to teaching and scholarship. Chartered in 1845 by the Republic of Texas through efforts of Baptist pioneers, Baylor is the oldest continually operating University in Texas. Located in Waco, Baylor welcomes students from all 50 states and more than 90 countries to study a broad range of degrees among its 12 nationally recognized academic divisions.
ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF ARTS & SCIENCES AT BAYLOR UNIVERSITY
The College of Arts & Sciences is Baylor University’s largest academic division, consisting of 25 academic departments and eight academic centers and institutes. The more than 5,000 courses taught in the College span topics from art and theatre to religion, philosophy, sociology and the natural sciences. Faculty conduct research around the world, and research on the undergraduate and graduate level is prevalent throughout all disciplines. Visit baylor.edu/artsandsciences.